Causation requires a model; data alone cannot answer causal questions. The Ladder of Causation is the organizing framework.
Causation requires a model; data alone cannot answer causal questions. The Ladder of Causation is the organizing framework.
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Causation requires a model; data alone cannot answer causal questions. The Ladder of Causation is the organizing framework.
Author: Judea Pearl & Dana Mackenzie
Rough Synthesis · Distilling
Interventions tell us what follows from doing something. Counterfactuals go further by comparing the world that happened with the world that could have happened.
“Paraphrase: causal explanation becomes useful when it can answer not only what happened, but what would have happened otherwise.”
Without counterfactual reasoning, causal models stay descriptive; with it, they become decision support.
concept · The Book of Why
A causal model becomes decision-relevant when it can compare the observed world with plausible alternative worlds.
“Paraphrase: causal understanding reaches its highest utility when it can answer what would have happened otherwise.”
Intervention answers what happens when we act, but counterfactuals answer whether a different action or condition would have changed the outcome.
One-Pager · Drafting
Ladder of Causation / Counterfactuals
+2 pts